CURRENT STATE AND ANALYSIS OF INFLATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
Keywords:
inflation, consumer price index, monetary policy, M2 money supply, exchange rate, inflation targeting, Central Bank of Uzbekistan, import inflation, core inflation, inflation inertia.Abstract
This article presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of the current state of inflation in the Republic of Uzbekistan from 2017 to 2024. The study applies an OLS multivariate regression model (three alternative specifications) based on quarterly panel data; M2 money supply growth, exchange rate changes, food and energy import prices, wage levels, and credit expansion are taken as independent variables. Results show that inflation inertia — lagged inflation (β = 0.511, p < 0.001) — is the strongest predictor, followed by M2 money supply growth (β = 0.400, p < 0.001) and exchange rate depreciation (β = 0.354, p < 0.01). Food import prices (β = 0.279) and energy prices (β = 0.231) show statistically significant effects as external factors. The model explains 90.6% of the variance (R² = 0.906). Although inflation has declined from a peak of 17.5% in 2018 to 9.6% in 2024, it remains significantly above the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's 5% target; accordingly, the article concludes with practical policy recommendations on coordinating monetary, fiscal, and structural measures.
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Azerbaijan
Türkiye
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Republic of Korea
Japan
India
United States of America
Kosovo